Most HVAC contractors fall into the aggregator trap early and never quite escape. The leads are real, the volume is steady, and the math always seems to work — until you actually run the math. Shared leads ship to three or more contractors at once. The homeowner already has competing quotes by the time your tech makes the appointment. Your close rate drops by half, and your effective cost-per-acquisition doubles.
What aggregators actually cost
A shared lead at $95 with a 16% close rate is an effective $594 cost-per-customer. A first-party direct-mail lead at $42 with a 31% close rate is $135 per customer. Same contractor, same crews, four-times-better unit economics.
How to find replacement candidates
Two segments make up most of the replaceable lead volume: homeowners whose systems are 10–20 years old (the replacement sweet spot) and homeowners showing active intent for ‘AC repair’ or ‘furnace replacement’ in the last 30 days. Cross-reference both with your service ZIPs and you have your monthly mailing list.
What to mail
A four-by-six postcard, two-sided, with one offer. Front: a real photo of a unit your team installed (not a stock photo). Back: an inspection or tune-up offer with a trackable phone number unique to that drop. Avoid clipart, avoid clipping coupons, avoid bundle pricing.
What to watch
Trigger your next drop the week of any heat or cold snap. Add a maintenance-plan re-engagement layer for past customers. Within two quarters, most contractors who run this playbook can eliminate aggregator spend entirely.
Put this playbook to work
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